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Author Topic: Mafia 3 - Fair play ain't dead - GAME OVER!  (Read 144416 times)
happy
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« Reply #15 on: March 16, 2014, 11:51:44 am »

Hello to all of you. I hope your seats are as comfortable as mine.
Do we have a comm, btw?
F1 Nobody
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Zackorrigan
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« Reply #16 on: March 16, 2014, 12:31:27 pm »

f1 Unsafe
Sorry bro, but i just want to kill the most unpredictable player first.
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Arjey
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« Reply #17 on: March 16, 2014, 01:20:23 pm »

F1 Kraise
Let's start killing randoms? Ok  Afro

Hey everyone Tongue Looking forward to this Smiley
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Fat-Tony
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« Reply #18 on: March 16, 2014, 02:07:04 pm »

Killing random ppl sounds like fun Kraise, but the percentage of killing a fairplayer is quite much higher than actually getting a cheating one. So lets keep the legionnare axe in the closet right next to the headchopping block for a little while shall we?  Evil
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happy
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« Reply #19 on: March 16, 2014, 05:00:12 pm »

If we estimate the mafia to be about the third of the players, and we lynch a completely random player, we have a 33% chance of lynching someone in the mafia, and a 67% chance of lynching someone innocent. But who's going to pick that random player? You? Isn't it in the mafia's interest to pick off someone "random"?

If everyone votes F3, no one will behave ominously thus it's less likely that hax0rs will make mistakes that may lead to their rendez-vous with DJ's AK later. So being all nice and candy and hoping for good NTA results is not decent either.

I daresay we should lynch the hax0rs.
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Feathers
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« Reply #20 on: March 16, 2014, 05:28:30 pm »

If everyone votes F3, no one will behave ominously thus it's less likely that hax0rs will make mistakes that may lead to their rendez-vous with DJ's AK later. So being all nice and candy and hoping for good NTA results is not decent either.


Besides random F1ing people or voting F3 nothing insightful is going to happen anyway.

F3
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Dervun
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« Reply #21 on: March 16, 2014, 06:06:22 pm »

I don't think so.. F1 Feathers
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valli
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« Reply #22 on: March 16, 2014, 06:16:31 pm »

So just random votes for now? Boring?
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He who controls the past commands the future, He who commands the future, conquers the past.
Dervun
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« Reply #23 on: March 16, 2014, 06:17:45 pm »

Who voted at random?
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happy
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« Reply #24 on: March 16, 2014, 06:19:15 pm »

Have more faith in intuition!
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Hakugei
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« Reply #25 on: March 16, 2014, 06:47:37 pm »

If we estimate the mafia to be about the third of the players, and we lynch a completely random player, we have a 33% chance of lynching someone in the mafia, and a 67% chance of lynching someone innocent.
From a pure numbers perspective that would be correct, but you're forgetting the fact that Mafia knows who belongs to which side, thus increasing the chance that an innocent is lynched "at random". You can safely say that a first-day-random-lynch is going to be an innocent.
Fortunately, numbers are just a side-dish to enjoy.

More importantly, if we silently stand by, we won't be getting any clues whatsoever.
Now I won't go so far as to proclaim that lynching an innocent is a good idea, but I want clues so F3 is out of the question.
With this plentiful number of players, the real question is who to aim at first for clues.

So let's grasp at some straws:
So just random votes for now? Boring?
Excuse me? Do you have a problem with random votes?
What else are you going to do if you don't know who belongs to whom?
No clues, no NTA results, no suspicions.
I am all up for your suggestions - in the meanwhile: F1 valli.
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Riddick
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« Reply #26 on: March 16, 2014, 06:51:38 pm »

^
F1 Valli.

He seems abit scared!


[edit by Daemon: don't forget to color votes in RED!]
« Last Edit: March 16, 2014, 07:20:14 pm by Daemon » Logged
Skuggi
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« Reply #27 on: March 16, 2014, 06:53:31 pm »

If we estimate the mafia to be about the third of the players, and we lynch a completely random player, we have a 33% chance of lynching someone in the mafia, and a 67% chance of lynching someone innocent.
From a pure numbers perspective that would be correct, but you're forgetting the fact that Mafia knows who belongs to which side, thus increasing the chance that an innocent is lynched "at random". You can safely say that a first-day-random-lynch is going to be an innocent.

Thank you, I believe I made that abundantly clear in the part of my post that you didn't quote.. But nevermind.

I don't think so.. F1 Feathers

Don't forget to F2 me  Wink
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mind
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« Reply #28 on: March 16, 2014, 07:03:34 pm »

About lynching someone, I am unsure. Let's see the game has just started, we still have some days Smiley
So just random votes for now? Boring?

Share your plan. As it seems you do not want to lynch nor want to random as that is boring? Not that many can vote with certainty at this point.
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Hakugei
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« Reply #29 on: March 16, 2014, 07:36:42 pm »

But who's going to pick that random player? You? Isn't it in the mafia's interest to pick off someone "random"?
This part? Smiley
It doesn't elaborate on the chance being higher than what you presented; which is what I added.
Read 1:1, you're probably saying "a random vote isn't random if the initiator is Mafia, and we innocents don't know if said initiator is Mafia". Keeping in mind that 33%~ are Mafia, both in terms of getting kicked and doing the kicking.

But if you wish for me to quote that part specifically as well, here's my comment towards it:
Yes; it would be in the Mafia's interest to pick off someone "pseudo-random" (=innocent). A free kill is always nice to them.
However, it's the first day. At this stage of the game, a night kill is a lot more silent than killing off someone with a vote.
Once clues and suspicions are out there, night becomes a lot less safe.
Bar vigilante-like NTAs, the night only harbors innocent deaths.

So to get this straight:
You would rather end this day prematurely in silence than anything else?
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